Rise in house prices to continue in 2025 and 2026, despite uncertainties

• House prices are expected to go up further in 2025 (+7%) and 2026 (+3%)

• Estimated transaction volumes for 2025 adjusted upwards

• Pay rises, lower mortgage rates and housing shortage continue to drive up prices

Robust house price growth in 2024

The Dutch housing market remains strong. After a weak year in 2023, house prices were up quite substantially in 2024, with an average price rise of 8.7 percent and prices reaching new record levels. In 2025, too, growth in house prices is likely to be driven primarily by falling mortgage interest rates, the housing shortage and higher household incomes. Debt statistics show that households are financially stable, due in part to the ever stricter loan terms that have restricted home financing. As a result, high house prices do not seem to have created financial problems for new and existing home owners. ABN AMRO expects prices increases to continue in 2025 and is sticking to its forecast of a 7 percent climb in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026. The bank says this price growth will be driven mainly by developments in the region around the city of Utrecht and in rural areas. Prices are expected to rise less quickly in Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague. ABN AMRO presents its conclusions in the latest edition of the Housing Market Monitor (in Dutch), published today.

Slight rise in number of transactions expected

Developments in the housing market indicate that the number of transactions is still growing. Last year, for example, saw more than 200,000 transactions. This was in line with earlier forecasts and partly the result of private investors selling off individual rental properties. The figures show that both buyers and sellers are again springing into action. For example, many private investors are deciding to sell rental properties in response to developments such as new tax regulations and the Affordable Rent Act. ABN AMRO has therefore adjusted its 2025 forecasts upwards, from +2.5 to +5 percent. Expectations for 2026 remain unchanged, at +1 percent, as the bank reckons the temporary increase in sales by private investors will largely have stabilised towards the end of the year. At the same time, transaction growth is likely to level off in 2026 as the housing supply remains tight.

Housing demand remains stable; supply lagging

Despite the light headwind at the start of the year and geopolitical uncertainties, the housing market is set to remain dynamic in 2025. “Mortgage rates were up slightly earlier this year and the monthly price increase almost came to a halt in February. The higher interest rates were due in part to Germany easing its Schuldenbremse, or debt brake, which is heightening risks in the eurozone. And while there is uncertainty about President Trump’s tariff plans, the impact on the Dutch housing market is likely to be small,” says Mike Langen, Senior Housing Market Economist at ABN AMRO. “At the same time, the supply of homes remains tight, although there are some positive signs. The Dutch government, for instance, has tried to stimulate new-build homes, but concrete results have yet to materialise. We therefore expect house prices to continue to climb this year and beyond.”