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  • Macro economy

The Week Ahead - 31 March - 4 April 2025

These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.

Aggie van HuisselingJan-Paul van de KerkeArjen van DijkhuizenRogier QuaedvliegBill Diviney(+4)
Article tags:
  • Macro economy

China - Economy shows some resilience as more US tariff threats loom

Chinese economy shows resilience despite the stepping up of US import tariffs, and targeted retaliation. We expect policy makers to continue with stepwise fiscal stimulus and more monetary easing, although Beijing is keeping part of its powder dry, with more US tariffs threats looming in April.

Arjen van Dijkhuizen
Article tags:
  • Macro economy

US - The reports of a contraction are somewhat exaggerated

Import frontloading depresses 2025Q1 GDP nowcasts, while private domestic demand remains solid. This increases the probability of a technical recession, especially if further tariffs arrive later in Q2. Recession probabilities marginally elevated with current policy, with upside risks if tariffs are increased.

Rogier Quaedvlieg
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Group Economics writes on a daily basis about macro-economic developments. Our economists monitor interest rates, currency developments, financial markets and sustainability. We also follow the economies of the United States, the Eurozone and China closely.
Group Economics

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