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  • Macro economy

The Week(s) Ahead - 23 December 2024 - 3 January 2025

These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.

Bill DivineyAggie van HuisselingJan-Paul van de KerkeArjen van DijkhuizenRogier Quaedvlieg(+4)
Article tags:
  • Macro economy

Fed Watch – A hawkish cut, with sharp talons

The Fed cut policy rates by 25 bps in another non-unanimous decision, with Hammack dissenting in favour of no cut. The cut was contrasted by a significant tightening in the dot plot, which showed a median 50 basis points of easing in 2025, compared to 100 basis points of easing in 2025 in the September dot plot. This outlook is consistent with an upward revision in the Summary of Economic Projections, with the PCE inflation forecast for 2025 rising to 2.5 from 2.1 in September. In a remarkable change of message, Powell noted that some of the projections did make assumptions on future fiscal policy. However, others did not, and some did not disclose, which is explains both the uptick in the level and the uncertainty in the inflation forecast.

Rogier Quaedvlieg
Article tags:
  • Macro economy

FOMC Preview – Easing between a rock and a hard place

We expect a 25 bps rate cut with no major surprises from the Fed this Wednesday. Since the start of easing, inflation has picked up, and the labour market remains a mixed bag. This puts the Fed in a difficult position, though the likely response is to keep moving towards neutral.

Rogier Quaedvlieg
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