Economic developments and forecasts

The ECB cut its key policy rates by 25bp as was widely expected.

Real GDP growth in Q1 stronger than expected driven by ongoing policy support and trade frontloading. March macro data point to improving momentum just before tariff shock will hit. Growth forecasts under review; we will publish revised growth forecasts in our Global Monthly later this month.

Brent crude has reached lowest level in three years at $63 per barrel, affected by U.S. tariffs threats and OPEC+ revive production. New US tariffs and threats against oil from Venezuela, Iran, and Russia have reshuffled supply chains and increased volatility.