These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.

The government shutdown has ended after 43 days. With mounting pressure from canceled flights before the Thanksgiving weekend, unpaid salary payments for many federal workers, and paused food aid to millions of households, a number of Democrats broke party line and gave in to reopening the government, without serious concessions on the primary issue of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). There was no renewal of subsidies for the ACA set to expire at the end of the year. That means that insurance premiums are set to rise substantially for many Americans. Instead, they got some concessions on backpay, reinstatement of fired workers, and a promise to at least vote on the ACA by the middle of December. There is no guarantee that an ACA extension will pass the Senate, and even then, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson refused to confirm he'd be willing to have a House vote on it. The interim funding package funds the government through January 30, 2026. There’s a significant risk the government will shut down again, especially considering that funding for some of this round’s pain points, such as food stamps, is secured until September.

We expect Brent crude to average $55/b in 2026, gradually declining to $50/b by year-end. TTF gas prices forecast to average €30/MWh in 2026, with summer prices falling to €26/MWh.