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Macro economy

The Week Ahead - 31 March - 4 April 2025

These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.

Aggie van HuisselingJan-Paul van de KerkeArjen van DijkhuizenRogier QuaedvliegBill Diviney(+4)28/03/2025

Macro economy

Key views Global Monthly 26 March 2025

US tariff threats have surprised even our pessimistic expectations, with the most important announcement still to come on 2 April. China, the EU and the US’s neighbours are expected to bear the brunt. For the eurozone, a new upside risk comes from likely significant increases in defence spending, and in Germany new infrastructure spending. This will blunt the impact of tariff rises. Global trade and growth are also initially benefiting from a frontloading ahead of tariff rises, but a sharp slowdown is expected later in 2025. Domestic demand is in the meantime recovering in the eurozone and China, helped by falling interest rates, and in China, targeted fiscal measures. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below target in the eurozone. This is likely to drive a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with Fed policy staying on hold from here, and the ECB continuing to cut rates.

Bill Diviney26/03/2025

Macro economy

Global economic forecasts as of 26 March 2025

Group Economics writes daily about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, prices in commodity markets and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.

Wilma SchelvisMarloes Dekker-Kok(+1)26/03/2025