The Week Ahead - 10 - 14 February 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Eurozone – In the final month of 2024 industrial production has likely contracted on a monthly basis, marking another instance where the underperformance of the eurozone industrial sector is underscored. Both French (-0.4% m/m) and German (-2.4% m/m) realisations came in below expectations. Looking ahead, while the sector is not expected to return to growth in the foreseeable future, we anticipate some stabilization in activity as cyclical headwinds ease. Rate cuts and increasing demand for goods from eurozone consumers should alleviate some of the pressure on the sector.
The Netherlands – GDP is expected to have expanded by 0.3% q/q in the final quarter of 2024, following two strong quarters. Generally, consumption will be supported by the continued rise in real incomes from higher wage growth, as well as a normalizing savings rate. Investments are expected to have gained some momentum, particularly in road transport due to the changed tax regulation to vehicles which has been implemented since the start of 2025. Dutch exports likely benefitted from growth in eurozone goods consumption over the last quarter, while weakness in Germany puts a lid on this growth.
China – We expect CPI inflation to have picked up somewhat in January in line with consensus, from an eleven-month low of 0.1% yoy in December. This is partly due to a pick-up in consumer spending in the run-up to the Lunar New Year break, which started end-January. Producer price deflation is expected to continue to ease gradually.