Our research
Access all our publications and columns. Use the filters to easily find what content you are looking for.
All publications
US Watch - Tariffs are not the endgame
There is increasing noise on a ‘Mar-a-Lago accord,’ an idea outlined in a paper by CEA Chair, Stephan Miran. The accord is part of a grand plan to devalue the dollar, similar to the 1985 ‘Plaza Accord,’ that is envisioned to increase US manufacturing competitiveness, and revitalize the economy.
Eurozone - PMIs rise on industrial optimism and frontloading
Euro Macro: The eurozone composite PMI for March moved further into expansionary territory at 50.4 up from 50.2 in February.
ESG Economist - Supply risks of transition commodities mount
So far this year, the price index for transition commodities has risen by 10%, mainly due to the strong recovery of copper prices and some early signs of recovery in Chinese industrial activity.
Macro Watch - Can defence spending revitalise the eurozone economy?
Higher defence spending will likely significantly lift growth in 2026, in both the eurozone and the Netherlands. A lot will depend on how quickly spending ramps up, and the extent to which Europe can re-tool industry. All else equal, this is likely to mean the ECB cutting interest rates less than we currently expect.
The Week Ahead - 24 - 28 March 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Fed Watch - Powell: 'Maybe I'll stay where I am'
The FOMC held rates in the 4.25-4.5% range and announced it will slow the pace of runoff of its securities holdings in April, by reducing the cap on Treasury redemption from $25 to $5 billion, while keeping the cap for MBS at $35 billion.
ESG Economist - How will EU-ETS 2 nudge households energy bills?
The European Union Emission Trading System (EU-ETS) is the flagship climate policy in the EU. It has been around since 2005 and mainly covers emissions from electricity generation, heavy industry, aviation, and most recently international shipping. The remaining combustion emissions from the road transport, buildings, and other light industry sectors will be addressed in a separate system called EU-ETS2. EU-ETS2 will be phased in gradually with a monitoring and reporting phase starting in 2025 and the system shall be fully operational in 2027. Fuel suppliers, rather than consumers, will be responsible to report their emissions and surrender allowances. The new system envisions lower emission reduction targets of 43% by 2030 from 2005 levels, compared to 62% under EU ETS1. The system will cover main fuels like natural gas, gasoline, diesel, heating oil, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), and coal, which sometimes is used in some industrial settings. In an earlier note [1] we covered the main aspects of EU-ETS2 such as the phase in process, associated mechanisms, and potential dynamics. This note aims to highlight the channels by which ETS2 affects regulated entities, along with monetizing the expected impacts on households energy bills in the Netherlands.
Gas market monitor - Europe’s gas from boom to gloom
The end of the transit agreement through Ukraine in December 2024 resulted is substantially higher prices. The rally in prices was further fueled by increasing warries on the timely refill to meet regulated storage requirements (90% full by 1st of November). As a result of these factors, Europe was at the edge of a new gas crisis. But gas prices shifted course in mid-February. Several factors helped in cooling the market. The most important reasons are the ongoing peace talks to end the Ukrainian war, along with potential flexibility in of storage targets. In addition, approaching the end of the heating season with favorable weather conditions helped easing the market by mitigating the storage withdrawal rate. Accordingly, the month-ahead benchmark is back towards 40 €/MWh levels after hitting a two year high of 58.4 €/MWh in February. Since the start of March, TTF prices averaged 41.5 €/MWh for the benchmark month-ahead contract (34.4 €/MWh for the year-ahead contract. European industrial demand recovery starts to pick up but US tariffs could seriously dampen the outlook, while LNG markets remain tight and volatility is here to stay. European TTF month-ahead contract is trading around 41.5 €/MWh at the time of writing.
ESG Economist - Gas consumption structurally lower since energy crisis
Gas consumption in the Netherlands was on average 27% lower over the period 2022-2024 compared to the 2019-2021 period. Electrification on the basis of renewable energy sources is gaining in importance in the Netherlands, but gas-fired power generation will remain necessary for the time being. Despite the decline in gas usage and GHG emissions, lower gas prices in 2025 could lead to an increase in gas consumption and emissions, especially in industry and greenhouse horticulture.
Dutch economy in focus - Resilience of internal demand in the face of external uncertainty
The Dutch economy experienced a notable improvement of growth in 2024; government and household demand were the main drivers. Consumption increases despite household pessimism; higher purchasing power, rising house prices and the tight labour market contribute to consumption growth.