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Oil Market Monitor - Tariffs and OPEC+ shake up
Brent crude has reached lowest level in three years at $63 per barrel, affected by U.S. tariffs threats and OPEC+ revive production. New US tariffs and threats against oil from Venezuela, Iran, and Russia have reshuffled supply chains and increased volatility.
US-China trade war: Twist and Shout
Late Friday evening, the US exempted popular electronics from reciprocal tariffs. The exemption provides particular relief to some of the magnificent seven, and others, who rely on Chinese manufacturing of electronics. Overall, roughly $390 billion of US imports were exempted, including about $100 billion from China.
ESG Economist - Carbon costs for ETS companies are set to rise
In 2024, Dutch companies that fell under the European Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) have emitted more CO2 than they did a year ago. According to the Dutch Emissions Authority (NEa), the increase was 2.3%, which amounts to approximately 1.4 million tonnes more CO2 emissions. In this short update on emissions among EU ETS companies, we not only look at emissions in the Netherlands, but also compare this with the trends in emissions in the other 26 EU member states. We also highlight the trend in carbon costs. Based on the expected CO2 price and the path of emissions towards 2030, we estimate the carbon costs in the period through to 2030.
ESG Economist – Is there a business case for sustainability?
Sustainability and climate change seem to have lost relevance in a world marked by tariffs, wars, and inflation. This note aims to establish a business case for sustainability, despite a loosening of regulatory standards and less participation of greens in the European Parliament.
The Week Ahead - 14 - 18 April 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
One week later - Reversal Day
Reciprocal tariff pause limits downside risks, but growth shock still significant
US - What will trigger the Fed put?
The substantial decline in equity indices is unlikely to lead to the Fed easing substantially. The liberation day shock pushes the Fed in opposing directions, with market pricing reflecting just one of them. Current market pricing would require the unemployment rate to rise to about 5.6% by year-end 2026, without a rise in inflation. We think the Fed will keep rates moderately restrictive until second half of 2026, when they can gradually start easing with 25bps per quarter.
ECB to cut rates at next four successive meetings
We expect the ECB to cut its key policy rates by 25bp at next week’s Governing Council meeting.
Important dynamics in the carbon cycle
Carbon can be stored in the atmosphere, ocean, soil, vegetation and in the lithosphere. The carbon cycle is a closed system. To limit temperature increase also the amount of carbon stored in the atmosphere needs to be limited. Limiting the amount of carbon stored in the atmosphere means that it needs to be stored in one of the other sinks and this will have an impact on those sinks.
The Week Ahead - 7 - 11 April 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.