Our research
Access all our publications and columns. Use the filters to easily find what content you are looking for.
All publications
The Week Ahead - 24 - 28 February 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Eurozone PMIs: France in the doldrums as German recovery continues
The eurozone composite flash PMI held steady at 50.2 in February, against our and consensus expectations for a slight pickup. The driver of the disappointment was France, with the German PMI signalling a continued expansion.
Rates Conviction - EU defence spending could shake EGB market
Recent comments by Trump regarding Russia and Europe have suggested a diminished US commitment to NATO, prompting European nations to significantly increase their defence spending.
ESG Strategist - Uptick of EU GBS will be limited and restricted to a few sectors
The EU Green Bond Standard (EU GBS) is a voluntary standard introduced by the European Commission to enhance the transparency and credibility of green bond markets within the EU. It was introduced as part of the broader EU Action Plan on Financing Sustainable Growth, with the regulation applying from 21 December 2024. The EU GBS promote the integrity and accessibility of green bonds, enhancing investor confidence, and facilitating the flow of capital toward environmentally sustainable projects, ultimately supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy. By providing a clear definition of what constitutes a green bond, the EU GBS seeks to mitigate the risks of greenwashing, improve the comparability of green financial products, and ultimately drive additional investment into initiatives that align with EU environmental objectives, such as climate change mitigation and biodiversity preservation. Since the application of the EU GBS in late 2024, only three issuers (being one corporate, one financial and one SSA) have used the EuGB label so far (EuGB is the name given to a green bond that complies with the EU GBS). In this piece, we explore the potential for an EuGB market and the additional incentive for both issuers and investors to use the label.
US Watch – One month of Trump Tariff Threats
One month into Trump’s presidency, trade policy uncertainty has only increased, with wider, more ambiguous trade proposals, chaotic negotiations, backtracking and delaying. Based on the current set of proposals, Canada and Mexico are the most exposed. The proposed 25% tariff would also have a significant negative impact on the US. Reciprocal tariffs are likely less damaging to the US compared to the previously proposed universal tariff, but a lack of clear definition or upper bound on the tariffs leaves great uncertainty around the potential impact.
US Watch – Trump also increases risks to labour market
Trump immigration and government employment policies increase downside risks to the economy. The labour market is expected to see a mismatched decrease in both demand and supply, leading to an increase in both the unemployment and vacancy rate. The feared inflationary impact of labour market policies is likely to be limited.
ESG Strategist - Climate disasters to exacerbate European fiscal deficits
Global warming is resulting in a rising number of climate and weather-related disasters. Although annual data is volatile, the costs of these disasters as a share of GDP are on a rising trend and expected to continue increasing during the coming years, even in a favourable 1.5°C global warming climate scenario where the targets of the Paris Agreement are met. In a previous research note ‘Which EU countries will suffer the most from extreme climate disasters?’ [1] we focused on the economic impact of climate and weather-related disasters in the EU at an individual country level under various scenarios of global warming. In this note we look more in depth at the impact on the public finances for a number of EU countries, namely their debt ratio levels, the impact on sovereign yields, and, ultimately, on their sovereign ratings.
Fed Watch – Easing cycle has ended
Following the hotter than expected inflation reading for January, we expect the Fed’s policy rate to stay on hold indefinitely, leaving the policy rate in restrictive territory. Lack of disinflation progress means the Fed will not be able to ease further before inflation gets a new impulse from tariffs. The labour market is unlikely to weaken so dramatically as to tip the dual mandate balance to easing.
The Week Ahead - 17 - 21 February 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Dutch macro perspectives – A strong finish to a year of recovery
The Dutch economy showed solid growth as GDP expanded by 0.4% q/q in the final quarter of last year - This was despite subdued growth in the eurozone – revised up today to 0.1% q/q – and a contraction in main trading partner Germany (-0.2 q/q). As expected, growth was broad-based across the components. The solid fourth quarter follows the very strong second (+1.1% q/q) and third quarters (0.8% q/q). As a result, annual growth in 2024 is now 0.9%, up from 0.1% in 2023. The growth figures indicate that the Dutch economy has effectively rebounded from the stagnation caused by the energy crisis in 2022 and 2023.