The Week Ahead - 7 - 11 April 2025

US – We expect core CPI in March to pick up again at 0.3% m/m, while headline, including food and energy, comes in at a weaker 0.1% m/m. This implies no progress on core y/y, while the headline drops down to 2.6%. Core goods will of particular interest in light of tariffs, with tariffs on all Chinese, and non-USMCA Mexican and Canadian imports, as well as steel and aluminium imports being active for a large part of the month. Tuesday evening, we get the FOMC meeting minutes, which will reflect some of the tariff discussions. Inflation projections were raised, and Powell ultimately communicated that the base case was that the inflation impact would be transitory. At the end of the week, we get new University of Michigan survey data for April, where in particular long-term inflation expectations showed a worrying increase last month. China – Annual CPI inflation for March (Thursday) is expected to turn positive again but to remain close to 0% (with the supply side still stronger than the demand side), after base effects drove inflation back to negative territory in February. Producer price inflation is expected to remain negative for a 30th consecutive month.