The Week Ahead - 31 March - 4 April 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
US – Wednesday, April 2nd is 'Liberation day,' the day where Trump announces the overall tariff plan, likely based on reciprocity. The total package could very well result in an increase in the trade-weighted tariff of 20%, which would represent a substantial negative growth shock in excess of 2% of while inflation could rise by more than 1.5pp.
On Friday we get the March labour market report. We expect a slightly stronger reading then consensus at 170k on the back of some reversals of the various grant freezes and DOGE layoffs, and some stronger hiring to deal with the frontloading in anticipation of tariffs. Regardless, the unemployment rate might tick up to 4.2%.
Earlier in the week, the ISM manufacturing PMI is likely to go into contractionary territory again, with the ISM services also declining a bit.
The Netherlands – The March flash CPI estimate is expected to come in at 3.4% y/y. The figure continues to be largely influenced by persistently high services inflation, driven by the increased rent indexation and still elevated wage growth. Additionally, food inflation remains a contributing factor to the inflation rate, in which the increased tobacco tax plays a significant role. Industrial goods prices are expected to see a m/m uptick, following the upward surprise in February. On the other hand, energy prices continue to exert downward pressure on the overall inflation rate.
China – March PMIs are expected to show a mild pick-up on balance, on the back of ongoing stimulus and possibly more trade frontloading. Beijjng will closely watch further US tariff plans – expected on April 2nd. Following 20% additional tariffs implemented in February/March, China may face further country-specific and/or product-specific tariffs, even though US President Trump recently hinted at a potential tariff discount in case of a TikTok deal.