SustainaWeekly - Energy intensity down sharply in many sectors
Natural gas consumption (energetic) decreased by 24% during 1990-2021, while the use of non-fossil energy carriers increased sharply. Growth in renewable energy stands out, with a 233% increase over the last 30 years. But despite this sharp growth, the total amount of energy in PJ is still limited. In almost all energy-intensive sectors, intensity has declined significantly since 1995, except in mineral extraction.
The difference in terms of quantities (in PJ) between final energy consumption in 1990 and in 2021 is marginal. The gap is only -0.2%. At first glance, we conclude from the left-hand figure below that there is very little variation in amounts of PJ over the years in the underlying energy carriers. This is certainly the case for petroleum feedstocks and products. Here the gap in amounts of PJ between 1990 and 2021 is also marginal. But for other energy carriers, a larger percentage difference can be seen. Natural gas is the most important energy carrier both in 1990 and in 2021, but has lost considerable ground over the years, especially in favour of electricity.
Natural gas consumption (energetic) decreased by 24% over the period 1990-2021. In contrast, the use of electricity and heat increased by 49% and 35% respectively between 1990 and 2021, while renewable energy use increased by a whopping 233%. Ultimately, renewable energy capacity needs to maintain exponential growth in the coming years to make the energy mix more sustainable. The variation in consumption of all these energy carriers is influenced by economic trends and developments, structural changes in the various end-use sectors - especially industry - but also improvements in end-use efficiency given the trend in overall consumption.
Final energy consumption by sector
Both natural gas and petroleum feedstocks & products have claimed a solid role in the Dutch energy mix and total energy consumption (energetic) over the past 30 years, with a combined share varying between 65% and 75%. Here, natural gas has a higher share than oil in the energy mix. In 2021, this share was 35% (gas) to 30% (oil). In total natural gas consumption, residential houses have a share of almost 50%. This share has changed little over the past 30 years. As we noticed before, the amount of natural gas used for energy purposes has fallen by 24% since 1990. Almost all major end-use sectors have contributed to this decline. Notably, agriculture with a 74% decrease in natural gas consumption between 1990 and 2021. This is partly due to the strong growth of renewable energy in the sector. But also with the introduction of combined heat and power (CHP), the generation of electricity and heat to the greenhouse has become much more efficient, as this technique requires much less natural gas than via the previously common route via power plants and heat boilers. The only sector where natural gas consumption increased (by 8% since 1990) is the food & beverage industry.
Oil consumption (energetic) has remained almost stable over the past 30 years, while non-energetic oil consumption increased by 34% over the same period. The growth in non-energetic consumption is mainly due to the chemical sector, as it uses a wide variety of petroleum raw materials and products in end products. Road transport accounts for about two-thirds of total energetic oil consumption annually, followed at a distance by the chemical sector with about 20% share by 2021.
Total electricity consumption has now increased by 49% since 1990 and is expected to continue growing in the coming years. The continuing electrification of society underpins this growth in particular. Electrification is the way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, provided that the electricity is produced in a clean way. The greatest growth potential - but also the greatest challenges - for electrification lie in the transport sector and industry. One-third of total electricity consumption currently goes to (non-)commercial services (including the water, waste and repair sectors), followed by industry (with 32% share) and residential with a 20% share. The largest consumers of electricity in industry are the chemical industry, the metal products industry (together with the machinery industry) and the food and beverage industry.
Growth in renewable energy stands out, with a 233% increase in 30 years. But despite this sharp growth, the total amount of energy in PJ is still limited. Its share in the energy mix is only 3% in 2021. Residential, agriculture and the (non-)commercial service sectors have the largest share in total renewable consumption. By 2022, renewable energy generation has increased sharply year-on-year. This made power generation a lot more sustainable. Solar energy was the largest contributor. Increasing electrification in industry, in transport and in households and buildings (cooking, heating) will further increase the share of electricity in the energy mix.
Energy intensity
The trend in energy intensity in sectors provides insight into (in)efficiency. This can be measured by plotting the amount of energy against units of output, activity or added value. A decrease in energy intensity means that less energy is used to produce a product or service. Then, in theory, efficiency has increased. When the energy intensity increases, the opposite is true.
At macro level - i.e. total final energy consumption to total gross domestic product (GDP), indicated by 'TOTAL' in the left-hand figure below - it is, however, more difficult to interpret energy intensity properly. This is because the trends and developments in the underlying sectors show great variety. After all, it is a sum of goods production, transport of goods and people, services in many forms and construction activity, among others. In that sense, the underlying sector trends provide more insight into this.
The top three most energy intensive sectors in 2021 are chemical & pharmaceutical, agriculture and transport. These three sectors stand out above the other subsectors in terms of energy intensity. In almost all energy-intensive sectors, the intensity has declined since 1995, except for mineral extraction. In the metals and construction sectors, the decline has been strongest over the past 25 years (by 70%-75%), followed at some distance by the services and transport sectors (both by around 63%). The agricultural sector has seen the least decline in relative terms at 33%.
In many non-industrial sectors, the decrease in consumption of fossil energy carriers (coal, oil and gas) is much larger than in the industrial sectors. Only in road transport and shipping is the volume of fossil energy carriers in 2021 at almost the same level as in 1995.
The housing sector shows a sharp decline in gas intensity and an increase in renewable energy intensity. The consumption of electricity (from non-renewable sources) by homeowners decreased after 2014 due to the strong rise in generation from renewable sources (especially from solar panels).
With increasing electrification of homes, dependence on fossil fuels (mainly gas) will decrease. Technologies to further electrify homes are widely available and also readily deployable. Nevertheless, decarbonising the housing stock remains a major task and challenge. Because on balance, it remains difficult to convince residents and users of homes to make the climate-neutral transition. In addition, implementing all climate-neutral options for homes will not be easy due to the persistent shortage of skilled professionals. What is certain in any case is that in the energy mix for the homes of the future, there will no longer be any room for natural gas.