Reduced gas consumption cuts Dutch greenhouse gas emissions

Burning fossil fuels to produce energy accounts for about 72% of global greenhouse gases (GHGs), according to the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES). Reducing fossil fuels (such as gas) and replacing them with renewable sources is therefore a top priority amongst policy makers. Dutch industry has significantly reduced its gas consumption in recent months, mainly due to higher costs. More energy-efficiency measures, replacing gas for oil, for instance, halting production lines and sometimes completely ceasing all activities were, however, at the root of this. As a result, the transition to a more sustainable energy mix is still a long way off.

Slow reduction GHG emissions

The European Green Deal aims for climate neutrality by 2050. This is also the ambition of the Dutch government. But achieving this goal will require large-scale action in many sectors. For example, to achieve the 2030 target alone (60% reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 levels), a GHG reduction of over 50% is needed. Every part of the Dutch economy will have to contribute to this. According to the first preliminary emission figures from CBS and RIVM/Emissions Registration (based on regulations from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC), GHG emissions in the Netherlands decreased by 10% in the first half of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021.

Since 1990, the Netherlands has reduced GHG emissions by about 15%. Looking only at CO2 emissions, this represents a 13% reduction in emissions since 1990. The energy sector, industry and private households have contributed the most to this with reductions between 16-20% since 1990, while transport has achieved only a 5% reduction in GHG emissions so far. Overall, the pace in reduction in emissions over the past years has been very slow.

The downward trend in GHG emissions set in late. From 1990 to 1997, emissions increased at first, before declining slightly in an erratic pattern. From 2010 - after the 2008-2009 financial crisis - emissions declined more sharply year-on-year. From 2014, GHG emissions increase again, especially from mobile sources (such as passenger cars, road freight, shipping, aviation, etc.). At the time Covid-19 and lockdowns occur in 2020, an abrupt sharper reduction in GHG emissions can be observed. However, with easing Covid-19 measures in 2021, a slight recovery in emissions is again visible.

Less gas consumption, less GHG emissions

Last week, CBS published GHG emissions figures for the second quarter of 2022. The figures showed that GHG emissions in the second quarter of this year were 9% lower than a year ago. This was mainly due to lower natural gas consumption in industry, agriculture and the built environment. In energy supply (electricity sector), emissions remained almost the same. Natural gas consumption in this sector was almost 20% lower in the second quarter year-on-year, but electricity production from coal increased by 40% year-on-year. Production from renewable sources also increased significantly - by 25% year-on-year in Q2 2022 - but this source was not able to offset the power supply sector's GHG emissions.

Due to the mild spring, gas consumption in the second quarter of 2022 was much lower year-on-year, partly because it was relatively cold in 2021 and thus heat demand was higher. But speaking of an increase of efficient energy usage by building owners remains questionable. Indeed, total emissions of GHG in the built environment in the second quarter of 2022 is at almost identical levels as in the second quarter of 2019 and 2020.

The correlation between industrial gas consumption and GHG emissions in industry was high until the first half of 2021. An increase or decrease in gas consumption meant also an increase or decrease in GHG emissions. But since the gas price skyrocketed, this relationship has decoupled to some extent. The trends in both still decreased, but the decline in gas consumption was much higher than the decline in emissions. From the available data, there is also a forward looking element. Data in relation to industrial gas consumption is almost 3 months ahead of the data in terms of GHG emissions. From the trends and the parallel between the two quantities, it is therefore very plausible to state that GHG emissions in the third quarter of 2022 will again be a lower than the level in 2021.

Gas measures

High gas prices caused many industrial companies to look for necessary alternatives to ensure business continuity. More energy efficiency measures were introduced, for instance, or natural gas was replaced with oil or renewable sources, where possible of course. But on the other hand, production lines were also regularly shut down or operations were completely halted. With continued higher costs for natural gas, this will become an unstoppable trend within the industrial sector, and in other gas intensive sectors. The shock in the natural gas market triggers many – sometimes drastic – measures among entrepreneurs. The measures taken have initially a direct impact and are focussed on business economics, to keep things going. This puts, however, a brake on the transition to a more renewable energy mix.

This article is part of the Sustainaweekly of 19 September 2022