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The Week Ahead - 31 March - 4 April 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - Economy shows some resilience as more US tariff threats loom
Chinese economy shows resilience despite the stepping up of US import tariffs, and targeted retaliation. We expect policy makers to continue with stepwise fiscal stimulus and more monetary easing, although Beijing is keeping part of its powder dry, with more US tariffs threats looming in April.
Global Monthly - This is getting complicated
The outlook is getting muddied by rising US recession risk on the one hand, and eurozone defence spending on the other. In the near-term, growth is being distorted by trade frontloading. This is leading to a partial unwind of the Fed-ECB policy divergence narrative that was driving markets. Despite the massive policy shifts of the past month, we are keeping our forecasts unchanged for now, and plan to do a full review after the US’s so-called ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement on 2 April. Spotlights: 1) Are tariffs really the end game? We explore the feasibility of a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’; 2) Will defence spending revitalise eurozone growth? We think it could, but from 2026 onwards.
The Week Ahead - 24 - 28 March 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - Good start to 2025, consumption support forthcoming
China Macro: Activity data for January/February surprise to the upside, although property sector data remain weak and the unemployment rate picks up. More consumption support is underway.
The Week Ahead - 17 - 21 March 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Global manufacturing - New disruptions on the horizon
Global manufacturing PMI rose to eight-month high in February. Both DMs and EMs show gains, but Canadian and Mexican PMIs sharply down on US tariffs. Improvements at both supply and demand side; export PMIs down for US, Canada, Mexico. Price components suggest pressures from industrial goods’ prices are building again. Spot container tariffs keep falling so far. US port fee plans may lead to serious disruptions in global shipping.
The Week Ahead - 10 - 14 March 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - More US tariffs, more support
US raises China tariffs by another 10%; Beijing again retaliates immediately and targeted. Tariffs implemented still fit with base case assumptions, but more may come. Stepping up of support confirmed in annual work report to National People’s Congress. We also see upside risks to our 2025 growth forecasts despite tariffs.
The Week Ahead - 3 - 7 March 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.