Macron loses the absolute majority in the French parliament
The legislative election result was clearly a defeat for Emmanuel Macron and his political allies (MODEM and Horizons) as the Presidential’s alliance lost its absolute majority necessary to pass political reforms without seeking additional support. Macron obtained 245 seats, which is far from the absolute majority of 289 seats.
As discussed in our previous note (), the legislative election was indeed set to be a difficult moment for the re-elected President, even though widely expected to obtain a majority, last round results represented a significant setback as the group Ensemble lost 100 seats compared to the 2017 legislative election. As such, in the coming weeks, there will be a new government composition as first, some of Macron’s nominated ministers failed to be elected in their regions, which will require them to quit the government. Second, the new government will need to take into account the new majority equilibrium and nominate some ministers from the political allies but also maybe even extend the nomination outside the President’s party if Macron seeks to obtain an absolute majority to govern. This would be a possibility looking at the right political spectrum with Les Républicains (LR) that managed to obtain a relatively good score compared to the presidential election. Indeed, with 74 seats LR represents an interesting option for political support for the government. However, whether LR would agree to such a political alliance is far from certain. Indeed, some of the party officials have already rejected the idea. The party will continue to discuss today this potential coalition.
French legislative election: result round 2 (2017 vs 2022)
Radical parties on the rise – with Marine Lepen’s party making a breakthrough in the parliament
Meanwhile, the radical right (RN) and left parties (NUPES) increased their seats. Le Pen’s party, Rassemblement National (RN), is the clear winner from this year’s legislative election with 89 seats which represents a historical moment as the nationalist party never had such a big representation in the parliament with only 8 seats obtained in 2017. This makes her party the third and even the second biggest party if the NUPES alliance were to split up (which is likely the case). Despite a relatively good score with 131 seats, the left coalition NUPES did not make the breakthrough that they had aimed for. First, this score only increased modestly compared to 2017 when regrouping all four left parties together. And more disappointing on Mélenchon’s side as this score is insufficient to place him as Prime Minister.
What does this entail for France in the upcoming years?
Despite the government falling short of an absolute majority, the country does remain governable for the 5 years to come. A relative majority only entails that more concessions and negotiations will need to occur with additional political parties to pass a bill. Most economic reforms from Macron’s political program also gather broader support than his political group, notably from the right side of the political spectrum. For instance, one of Macron’s biggest economic reforms concerns the pension system and this reform is already known to attract favorable opinions from LR.
However, the biggest downside of the lack of an absolute majority will be the speed of the government’s political agenda. Indeed, stronger opposition, both from the radical right and left party, add further challenges to Macron’s policy implementation. One of those challenges will come from what is called a ‘’Motion de Censure’’ which refers to a motion of no confidence that a group of more than 58 Deputies can present in the parliament to overthrow the executive government (that is, the Prime Minister and other ministers). Mélenchon’s party already called for one last night against the current Prime Minister, Elizabeth Borne, on the 5th of July. Therefore, Macron’s second and last mandate will not be a peaceful ride. Even though a loss of absolute majority does not prevent his government to govern the country, this will clearly add more political tensions and slow the pace of the country’s reforms. Finally, we find it difficult to see a new political coalition emerging with LR, but rather see more majorities built on a "case by case" basis, something already mentioned by a member of the presidential party. In other words, the government would seek to gather the votes of at least 289 Deputies for each legislative bill it wishes to pass.