Euro Watch - French legislative election: a third round at play

• On 12th June 2022, the first round of the French legislative elections will be held, and on 19th June the second round

• In contrast to five years ago, when Emmanuel Macron comfortably won an absolute majority of the seats in parliament, this year’s result might be a close call due to a loss of momentum for Macron’s party and the increasing competition from the new Left Union (NUPES) led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon

• Obtaining a majority in the national assembly (Parliament) is fundamental for the re-elected President to be able to pass the reforms set out in his political programme

• Polls suggest that Macron’s party and its allies will retain a majority in parliament, which is also our base scenario …

• … although we think that the President’s parliamentary majority will be lower than in 2017

• Whether Macron is able to retain a majority or not, social tensions are likely to arise during the post-election period, when the economic reforms will begin

Introduction

The French legislative elections will be held on the 12th and 19th of June. This election aims to elect the 577 members of the national assembly (see box below for more detail on the election process). Despite President Emmanuel Macron being re-elected last April with 58% of the votes, which (historically) represents a decent score for a re-election, the legislative elections won’t be a peaceful ride for the presidential party as the opposition is mobilized more than ever. Still, Macron’s party (Ensemble) and its allies have stayed ahead in the polls.

Macron’s party: the closest to obtaining a majority in the parliament…

Macron’s party, Ensemble, and its allies (ENS/DVC) will retain a majority with on average 305 seats according to the average of various polls (see graph below) which would be slightly lower than 323 seats currently. The legislative results for French outside territories that were recently published provide an extra push for Ensemble, as the party came ahead with a large margin in most of those regions. However, this should be taken with a pinch of salt as French expatriates tend to vote pro-Macron in general so it could not be indicative of the final election results.

Despite, the slide in Macron’s popularity compared to the elections in 2017, the results from the presidential election last April, suggest that Macron’s momentum is still there. Indeed, looking at the number of regions that were won (which is what matters for the upcoming election), Macron was able to gain more regions (256 in total in the first presidential round). Marine Le Pen’s count slightly declined compared to 2017, with a loss of 10 regions. Meanwhile, the candidate that showed the strongest momentum during this year’s election is Jean-Luc Mélenchon. On the edge of qualifying for the second round, Mélenchon also increased his territorial influence, winning 104 regions from only 67 regions in 2017. The intention of votes for the first round (see below) also confirms Mélenchon’s positive momentum. Still, it is important to emphasize, that polls and national results do not reflect the future composition of Parliament, as this is distributed on a per-constituency, not on a national, basis.

… but the new Left Union (NUPES) shows strong opposition and keeps advancing in the polls

After the presidential election, Mélenchon was one of the candidates already calling for a third-round election to reduce Macron’s power for his second mandate and to nominate him as Prime Minister. As such, Mélenchon attempted and succeeded in uniting all four left-wing parties: Parti socialiste (PS), Parti communiste français (PCF), Europe écologie les verts (EELV), and La France Insoumise (Mélenchon’s party) to form a political alliance for the legislative election. During the past weeks, this Left coalition led by Mélenchon – called the Nouvelle union Populaire écologique et sociale (NUPES) continued to advance in the polls. With around 26% of the intention of votes in the first round, NUPES challenges the presidential party, with the movements neck and neck as shown in the graph above on the right. Even though this is not the first time that a left wing political grouping has formed in France, such a broad electoral alliance represents a major change in the left political alignment, which is likely to cost Macron’s party votes.

However, despite the strong momentum for Mélenchon and the NUPES, it is rather unlikely to see this coalition obtaining a majority and Mélenchon being elected Prime Minister. Indeed, looking at the projected number of seats each political alliance would obtain (see graph above), NUPES is still far away from reaching the required 289 seats. But even if NUPES is not positioned well enough to obtain a majority, it is likely to become the main political opposition to the presidential party. This also pushed the Rassemblement National (Le Pen’s party) to the side after Le Pen-based her legislative campaign as being the main opposition to the re-elected president. On average, polls indicate around 38 seats for her party, which still represents a strong score as this would be about 4 times more than in 2017. It will, however, not qualify her as the biggest opposition in the parliament.

In the end, uncertainty remains in this upcoming election as ‘’Macron’s wave’’ is fading, while the Left is rebounding. In our view, this should not prevent the presidential movement from getting a majority but leaves it just slightly above the required majority of seats. And with another record-high abstention rate expected, combined with the normal margin of errors of polls, the re-elected president could end up missing a few seats, forcing him to turn to another party such as the right party (Les Republicains) to retain his current majority and form a coalition.

Social tensions are to be expected, independent of the election results

Whether Macron manages to retain a majority of the seats in parliament or needs to form a coalition with another party or, in a less likely scenario, NUPES wins the legislative election and forces the current government into a cohabitation, social tensions are likely to emerge in the post-election period. Looking at the most likely scenario which is, in our view, Macron’s party and its allies retaining a majority, some political turmoil can be expected after the elections. First, the current composition of parliament is likely to shift significantly as the right party (LR) was the main political opposition in 2017, whereas today’s new opposition is likely to represent a real challenge for the presidential government. Indeed, seats are expected to be partly filled by more radical parties such as Rassemblement National (RN) and La France Insoumise (part of NUPES). As mentioned above, this year, Mélenchon is likely to represent the main political opposition, with NUPES expected to obtain around 165 seats (vs 17 seats for La France Insoumise). Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen also is expected to increase her influence in parliament with the polls showing that RN could increase its number of seats to 38, from 8 previously. Second, Macron’s re-election also partly comes from the desire to prevent the radical right candidate from winning the French presidency, rather than a true adherence to Macron’s political programme. A couple of his economic reforms, notably the pension reform, are likely to trigger social protests and political backlash. An overview of the policy plans of the main candidates can be found in our previous note (here).