Are synthetic fuels the solution for cars?
One of the key measures to achieve the EU’s emissions target is to end new sales of internal combustion cars and vans by 2035. However, the vote at the European Council was delayed because some countries proposed an exemption for cars with internal combustion engines fuelled by synthetic fuels. Synthetic fuels are not currently the most viable or efficient solution for cars, though there are some advantages as well.
The EU aims to reduce GHG emissions by 55% by 2030 and to be net-zero in 2050
One of the key measures to achieve this is to end new sales of internal combustion cars and vans by 2035
However, the vote at the European Council has been delayed because some countries proposed an exemption for cars with internal combustion engines fuelled by synthetic fuels
Synthetic fuels are a solution but currently not the most viable or efficient solution for cars
Still, there are also some important advantages of using e-fuels for road transport
Introduction
According to Eurostat, the mobility sector accounted for 21% of total EU emissions in 2020. Road transport is the biggest emitter in the mobility sector. It is responsible for around 95% of the total emissions of the mobility sector. The table below shows the greenhouse gas emissions of EU 27 in 2020 of the mobility sector in Megaton and as percentage of the total of mobility. Passenger cars account for 57% of emissions of the mobility sector. Commercial vehicles account for around 38% of the GHG emissions. This is the sum of emissions and percentages of heavy duty and light duty vehicles. In 2021 nearly 250 million cars were on the road in total. 29.5 million vans (up to 3.5 tonnes) were in circulation throughout the European Union and 6.4 million medium and heavy commercial vehicles and 714,000 buses.
Ban on new sales of cars and vans with internal combustion engines by 2035?
The EU has set the goal to reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHG) by at least 55% and make the EU climate neutral by 2050. To reduce GHG emissions by the mobility sector the EU has set ambitious targets for this sector. A key policy is the ban on sales of new cars and vans with internal combustion engines by 2035. In June 2022, the European Parliament backed the European Commission’s proposal of . Intermediate emissions reduction targets for 2030 would be set at 55% for cars and 50% for vans. Members of the European Parliament voted to ban the sale of new combustions engine cars by 2035. The Environment Ministers at the European Council agreed to this ban from 2035. But the European Council left the door open to CO2 neutral fuels as decarbonization alternatives to electrification. The ban was by a tight margin. But it had to be formally endorsed by the Council. A few days ago the Swedish Presidency of the Council decided to postpone the formal signoff of new CO2 emission standards for cars and vans including the ban. The vote was previously scheduled for 7 March 2023. Germany, Italy, Poland and Bulgaria have expressed concerns about the ban of cars with internal combustion engines by 2035. Some countries had asked for a delay of five years but this was overruled. At the end of February, Germany asked the European Union for an exemption to this ban. The exemption would be for internal combustion cars using synthetic fuel.
What happens now? There is no new date set for the vote. A proposal is adopted if a qualified majority is reached. This is the case if two conditions are simultaneously met: 55% of member states vote in favour and the proposal is supported by member states representing at least 65% of the total EU population. This is called the double majority rule. The blocking minority must include at least four member states.
What are synthetic fuels?
The discussion is centred around the notion that cars with internal combustion engines fuelled by synthetic fuels should be exempted from the ban. What are synthetic fuels? Synthetic fuels are liquid fuels that have the same properties as fossil fuels but are produced artificially. Synthetic fuels can be blended with fossil fuels or replace the fossil fuel in internal combustion engines. For the production of synthetic fuels CO2 is captured from the atmosphere through a Direct Air Capture system. Burning the synthetic fuel does release CO2 back into the air. So this is the CO2 that was used in the production of the synthetic fuel. As a result, there are no-net CO2 emissions There are three types of synthetic fuels and the way they are produced makes the difference (source ):
Biomass-to-liquid produces biofuels (any fuel that is derived from biomass)
Power-to-liquid produces e-fuels such as e-methane, e-kerosine and e-methanol
For mobility if synthetic fuels are mentioned they often refer to is e-fuels or electro fuels. These fuels are produced via the power-to-liquid method. First, renewable electricity is generated, which then drives an electrolyser that splits water into hydrogen and oxygen. Next, the hydrogen is mixed with carbon dioxide and turned into syngas via the reverse water gas shift (RWGS) reaction – a process that is conducted at high temperatures and driven with electricity (source ). Are synthetic fuels carbon-neutral fuels? Carbon-neutral fuels are fuels which produce no net-CO2 emissions. So synthetic fuels are considered carbon neutral if renewable resources are used in the production process.
Are synthetic fuels a viable solution for road transport?
The aim of the EU to be net zero by 2050 is an enormous challenge. There are several technologies and solutions that are crucial in the transition. Lithium-ion batteries, fuel cells that use hydrogen and zero-carbon synthetic fuels are technologies for the mobility sector to reduce greenhouse gases. The choice of technology or technologies for each subsector in mobility depends on availability of a technology, the efficiency, the cost and infrastructure. Which technology is viable or suitable for which subsector in mobility? Lithium-ion batteries are a viable solution for personal cars, vans and city buses but less so for heavy duty vehicles (because of weight, range, infrastructure and grid adjustments) and no viable solution for long-distance aviation (weight and range) and international shipping (range).
Fuel cells fuelled with hydrogen are a viable solution for heavy duty vehicles and could also be a viable solution for domestic aviation and domestic navigation. But the infrastructure is the main challenge. Meanwhile synthetic fuels can be used in all subsectors of mobility. It is blended or replaces fossil fuels. Then the existing infrastructure and engines of fossil fuels can be used, but synthetic fuels need to be produced from renewable energy in order to qualify as green. However these fuels are expensive to produce and are available in limited quantities. For example the production of green hydrogen on sufficiently large scale is still not established and there almost no plants that produce e-fuels.
Are synthetic fuels a viable solution for road transport? We think that they are currently not the most viable solution for the following reasons. First, due to the limited availability of e-fuels, the aim is to use them only for the hard to decarbonize (sub)sectors such as aviation and international shipping. Second, battery-electric vehicles are the most efficient solution for personal cars, vans and city-buses. This technology is more efficient than fuel cells fuelled by hydrogen.
E-fuels are the least efficient technology for road transport right now. According to ICCT 48% of the energy from renewable electricity is lost in the conversion to liquid fuels. To compound the problem, according to various studies 70% of the energy in those fuels will be lost when they are combusted in internal combustion engines. All together the total efficiency for the e-fuels pathway for road transport is around 16%. This compares to a 72% efficiency for a battery electric car where the battery is charged by solar panels (source ). Third, manufacturing e-fuels is very expensive and energy-intensive. Using e-fuels in an internal combustion car requires about five times more renewable electricity that running a battery-electric vehicle, according to a paper in the Nature Climate Change journal.
But there are also some important advantages of using e-fuels for road transport. With the use of e-fuels the internal combustion engine and the current refuelling infrastructure could continue to be used. In addition there will be lower pressure to build charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, the refuelling infrastructure of fuel cell vehicles, to make the grid adjustments, and lower demand for critical metals (except metals used as catalyst in the production of synthetic fuels). If future technological developments result in a less expensive, less energy-intensive mass-production of e-fuels and improve the efficiency of e-fuels, e-fuels could be used on a wider scale and also in cars.