The week ahead - 7 - 11 October 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
United States – Wednesday evening sees the release of the September FOMC Meeting minutes. The Fed reduced rates by 50 bps, while most economists had expected 25 bps. The dot plot showed that almost half of the members only pencilled in 75bps for the year, and likely did not initially support the jumbo cut. Bowman even dissented in the vote. The minutes will provide some information on how the consensus was formed, and where the FOMC saw the risks to warrant the jumbo cut. On Thursday we get September CPI inflation. We expect core and headline inflation to come in at 0.2% and 0.1% m/m, leading to y/y figures of 3.2% and 2.3% respectively. Shelter is likely to put continued pressure on both measures, while energy prices lead to downward pressure on the headline figure.
China – September lending data will be published between Wednesday 9 October and Tuesday 15 October. M2 money supply growth is expected to pick up marginally. Going forward, lending growth is likely to accelerate in the coming months, given the stimulus initiatives launched/announced in late September.