The Week(s) Ahead - 23 December 2024 - 3 January 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Eurozone – Flash HICP inflation for December is expected to see a further pickup; similar to last month, this is largely driven by base effects in energy prices, and this impact is expected to be biggest in December. Core inflation should hold steady, but we see upside risks to the forecast, with services expected to pickup sequentially following the weak November reading. Unemployment is expected to hold steady in the eurozone aggregate but to continue gently rising in Germany. Finally, we expect retail sales to rebound, with slowly rising consumer confidence to support a pickup in spending.
China – The December PMIs are expected to show a mild improvement on balance. The official PMIs (manufacturing and non-manufacturing) due on 31 December are expected to remain just above the neutral 50 mark separating expansion from contraction. Caixin’s manufacturing PMI (due on 2 January) is expected to rise to 51.8 (November: 51.5), possibly helped partly by trade frontloading in the run-up to an increase of US import tariffs next year.