The Week Ahead - 21 - 25 April 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Eurozone – On Wednesday the eurozone composite PMIs are released. We expect the composite PMI to remain just above the neutral mark separating expansion from contraction, but turn out lower than the March reading (50.9). Policy uncertainty over tariffs is expected to have depressed sentiment across the board. Special attention will be devoted to any further signs of frontloading of imports by US companies. In the March manufacturing PMI this seemed to have provided a boost to activity. China – We still expect a resumption of monetary easing (next to further fiscal stimulus) to offset the drags from the escalated trade conflict with the US. Loan-prime rates set by commercial banks (due on Monday) normally follow PBoC policy rates, but the timing of PBoC rate decisions is unknown. We have pencilled in a 10bp cut for the 1-year loan prime rate, and expect further policy rate and RRR cuts to follow.