The Week Ahead - 13 - 17 January 2025

United States – The CPI report on Wednesday is likely to be consistent with narrative that US disinflation is stalling. We expect both core and headline CPI to rise by 0.3% m/m, leaving core unchanged at 3.3% y/y, and the headline y/y rising to 2.9% from 2.7%. Retail sales might see some frontloading due to anticipated tariffs, estimated at 0.6% m/m for the headline figure. The control-group sales, which excludes, amongst others, cars, gas and food services, likely also grew by 0.6% m/m. The late year rally would end the year close to the historical median, after a very slow start. Industrial production on Friday is likely to rebound at 0.3% m/m, consistent with recent PMI data.

The Netherlands – Unemployment published on Thursday is expected to come in at 3.7%, thereby staying a rounded 3.7% for the fifth month in a row. As the unrounded figure for November was 3.66%, we do expect a marginal mom increase. With 1.06 vacancies per unemployed, the labour market remains tight, although this tightness has eased from its peak. Unemployment is expected to gradually increase as temporary factors (like the low number of bankruptcies coming out of the pandemic) are unwinding, but it is expected to remain low in the years to come due to strong labour demand and limited labour supply.

China – Export growth (due on Monday) is expected to have improved in December, partly reflecting trade frontloading in the run-up to the anticipated increase of US import tariffs. We expect the GDP Q4-24 data (Friday) to show a clear pick-up in quarterly GDP growth, driven by the stepping up of stimulus, and annual GDP growth to have risen from 4.6% in Q3-24 to almost 5.0% in Q4. December activity data are also due on Friday: retail sales are expected to have accelerated somewhat.