Gas market monitor - Europe’s gas from boom to gloom
The end of the transit agreement through Ukraine in December 2024 resulted is substantially higher prices. The rally in prices was further fueled by increasing warries on the timely refill to meet regulated storage requirements (90% full by 1st of November). As a result of these factors, Europe was at the edge of a new gas crisis. But gas prices shifted course in mid-February. Several factors helped in cooling the market. The most important reasons are the ongoing peace talks to end the Ukrainian war, along with potential flexibility in of storage targets. In addition, approaching the end of the heating season with favorable weather conditions helped easing the market by mitigating the storage withdrawal rate. Accordingly, the month-ahead benchmark is back towards 40 €/MWh levels after hitting a two year high of 58.4 €/MWh in February. Since the start of March, TTF prices averaged 41.5 €/MWh for the benchmark month-ahead contract (34.4 €/MWh for the year-ahead contract. European industrial demand recovery starts to pick up but US tariffs could seriously dampen the outlook, while LNG markets remain tight and volatility is here to stay. European TTF month-ahead contract is trading around 41.5 €/MWh at the time of writing.