Dutch Rates Focus - Update Dutch elections: VVD will not participate in coalition

Update Dutch elections: VVD will not participate in the coalition

After the surprise victory of the PVV on Wednesday shocked politics, the formation process to form a new government is now underway. Developments have been quick and surprising. VVD Leader Yeşilgöz indicated her party will not enter a majority coalition with the PVV because of their election loss. The VVD (24) came in third after PVV (37 seats) and PvdA/GL (25), losing 10 seats compared to the 2021 election. It remains to be seen what will happen exactly but we explore the implications of this VVD shift.

The traditional way of forming a government is with a majority government. Parties that together have 76 seats or more lay down their plans in a coalition agreement and form a cabinet with members affiliated with the party. This decision by the VVD to not enter a government with PVV, NSC and possible the BBB, rules out a new majority government of the right. Moreover, it also rules out a more left-orientated government as without the VVD such a coalition will not have sufficient seats for a majority in parliament.

Other options are a minority government; PVV and NSC form a coalition with policies that are in line with VVD’s interests. The VVD would then support such a government without participating in the coalition. An other option could be to form an extra parliamentary government, where ‘experts’ from all parties form a coalition and support is subject based and majorities rotate based on the topic.

What are the implications?

History has shown that minority governments are very unstable. Coincidentally, the VVD went into a minority government (Rutte 1) in 2010 supported from the outside by the PVV in the midst of the great financial crisis. As a lot of reforms had to be implemented, the minority government collapsed in 2012 as the PVV retracted its support from the minority government. In 2010, the minority government had 52 seats, 76 including the PVV. Now a minority coalition of the NSC and the PVV has 57 seats, 64 including the BBB, and including the support of the VVD, there is a majority of 88 seats.

A minority government greatly reduces the chances of PVV policies being executed. Indeed Yeşilgöz indicated that the VVD would not support minority government plans such as a Nexit, getting rid of personal healthcare contributions, withdrawing support for Ukraine or halting climate policy, all subjects from the PVV programme. Blocking these, especially the healthcare plans, also means spending of such a coalition would be reigned in significantly.

The news can be seen as the opening positions of the formation process and a lot can still change. Even a coalition centre government with PvdA/GL, VVD, NSC and D66 (78 seats) is still possible, but it would contain a lot of losing parties making it not the straightforward option.